Unemployment? Google it! Analyzing the usability of Google queries in order to predict unemployment

Treballs Finals del Màster d'Economia, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2016-2017, Tutor: Raúl RamosDuring the last years the accessibility of big data has risen exponentially mainly due to the increase of internet usage. The biggest internet search engine Google Sites made statistics about the search queries public in real-time. In this paper these search queries are exploited in order to analyze whether this new type of data have the capability to improve the traditional econometric forecasting models. More precisely, this paper analysis the usability of Google search terms in order to forecast the unemployment rate in the Netherlands. This is done by creating a variable based on the volume of search terms submitted on Google (Google Indicator). The predictive capacity of the Google Indicator is measured by comparing the accuracy of a benchmark model versus an augmented model where the Google Indicator is added. The findings show that the Google augmented models produce up to 27.8% more accurate forecasts when considering a one-month ahead forecast horizon. During more recent sub-periods this improvement is even higher, reaching forecast performances that are 34.6% more accurate. However, the predictive power of the Google Indicator is diminishing when the forecast period is extended. This indicates that the use of Google data is mainly beneficial for short-term predictions

Appraising evidence-based mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) guidelines:PART I: A systematic review on methodological quality using AGREE-HS

In 2007, the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) published its guidelines for mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) in emergency situations. This was one of the first sets of MHPSS guidelines, developed during the last decades, to aid policymakers and practitioners in the planning and implementation of disaster mental health risk reduction activities. However, the potential merit of MHPSS guidelines for this purpose is poorly understood. The objective of this study is to review available MHPSS guidelines in disaster settings and assess their methodological quality. MHPSS guidelines, frameworks, manuals and toolkits were selected via a systematic literature review as well as a search in the grey literature. A total of 13 MHPSS guidelines were assessed independently by 3–5 raters using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation–Health Systems (AGREE-HS) instrument. Guideline quality scores varied substantially, ranging between 21.3 and 67.6 (range 0–100, M = 45.4), with four guidelines scoring above midpoint (50). Overall, guidelines scored highest (on a 1–7 scale) on topic (M = 5.3) and recommendations (M = 4.2), while implementability (M = 2.7) is arguably the area where most of the progress is to be made. Ideally, knowledge derived from scientific research aligns with the receptive contexts of policy and practice where risks are identified and mitigated

Appraising Evidence-Based Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS) Guidelines—PART II:A Content Analysis with Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction

High quality mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) guidelines are indispensable for policy and practice to address the mental health consequences of disasters. This contribution complements a review that assessed the methodological quality of 13 MHPSS guidelines. We analyzed the content of the four highest-ranking guidelines and explored implications for disaster risk reduction (DRR). A qualitative explorative thematic analysis was conducted. The four guidelines proved largely similar, overlapping or at least complementary in their MHPSS definitions, stated purpose of the guidelines, user and target groups, terminology, and models used. Many recommended MHPSS measures and interventions were found in all of the guidelines and could be assigned to five categories: basic relief, information provision, emotional and social support, practical support, and health care. The guidelines stress the importance of monitoring needs and problems, evaluating the effect of service delivery, deliberate implementation and preparation, and investments in proper conditions and effective coordination across professions, agencies, and sectors. The MHPSS knowledge base embedded in the guidelines is comprehensive, coherent, and sufficiently universal to serve as the “overarching framework” considered missing yet vital for the integration of MHPSS approaches in DRR. Although application contexts differ geographically, this common ground should allow policymakers and practitioners globally to plan, implement, and evaluate MHPSS actions contributing to DRR, ideally together with target groups

Implications of coping characteristics and social status for welfare and production of paired growing gilts

This paper considers the question whether knowledge on individual coping characteristics of growing pigs may be used to improve welfare and production after mixing. Gilts with either reactive or proactive coping characteristics were identified according to behavioural resistance in a backtest, respectively, being low (LR) and high resistant (HR) in this test. At 7 weeks of age, several pairs of unfamiliar gilts were formed, and pairs and dominance relationships were studied over a 3-week period. The following pairs (combinations) were established: two LR gilts (LR/LR; n = 12), two HR gilts (FIRM; n = 12), one LR and one HR gilt (LR gilt dominant: LR(d)/HR; n = 11), and one LR and one HR gilt (HR gilt dominant: LR/HR(d); n = 12). Results showed that on the day of mixing, aggression subsided less quickly and increases in body temperature were higher in LR/ HR(d) and HR/HR pairs. Also, during the first week post-mixing, feed efficiency was lower and skin damage was higher in LR/HR(d) and HR/HR pairs. Mixing of two HR gilts caused highest levels of stress, indicated by greater catecholamine concentrations in urine following the day of mixing, and higher baseline levels of plasma ACTH at I week post-mixing. The lower tendency of fearfulness. In contrast to gilts within HR/HR pairs to contact a novel object may present higher those of LR/HR(d) pairs, responses of LR(d)/HR pairs revealed much lower levels of stress, which emphasised the importance of dominance relationships, being independent of coping characteristics of individual gilts. We speculate that in LR/HR pairs, dominant LR gilts were able to suppress aggressiveness of HR subordinates. HR or proactive gilts, however, may become aggressive when being dominant. General effects of social status, independent of combination, were also found. Compared to dominants, subordinates showed higher acute cortisol, body temperature and vocal responses to mixing. In the longer term, they showed a higher vocal and parasympathetic responsitivity towards the novel object, and their body growth was impaired. Measures not influenced by combination and social status included those of leucocyte subsets, prolactin, and average heart rates during novelty tests. To conclude, aggressive conditions in newly formed groups. and consequently welfare and production, may largely depend on coping characteristics of individual pigs, but also on dominance relationships. Accordingly, the practical value of the backtest is being discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Міфологізм у символістській прозі Клима Поліщука

The particularities of mythology in symbolist prose by Klym Polishchuk are explained in the article. There are two time planes of plot evolvement in fantastic stories by Klym PolishchukG past and present. Fantastic events in the past have continuation in

A European Turn in Early American History? A Discussion of Evan Haefeli's Accidental Pluralism: America and the Religious Politics of English Expansion, 1497-1662

From the nineteenth century onwards, Americans have naturalized their colonial origins into a consensual nationalist history, emphasizing America’s perceived role as a refuge for the persecuted, while smoothing out a myriad of complexities in the process. Evan Haefeli attempts to overturn the assumptions underpinning this narrative and is convinced that many important aspects of early America need to be understood within a broader European context. In Accidental Pluralism, he argues that the collapse of religious unity in England lies at the root of the emergence of pluralism in colonial America, in which he includes Canada and the Caribbean. Relationships among states, churches, and publics were contested from the earliest decades of colonization and created a pluralistic religious landscape that no one had anticipated. The four reviewers are fulsome in their praise, calling it an impressive, important, powerful, and sweeping book that few scholars could have written. The reviewers also raise questions, for instance by problematizing the incorporation of the colonial American dimension into early British history, criticizing the validity of the chosen end date, and questioning his definitions of diversity, pluralism, and religious toleration. In his response Evan Haefeli takes the opportunity to reflect on what drove him to write the book and to organize it in this way. He acknowledges that connecting early American history with its broader European context was more difficult than it should have been, as the dominant questions in the two historiographies are an ocean apart. While the argument of the book is aimed at early Americanists, Haefeli is grateful that the reviewers situate the story he tells within the broader early modern European history of toleration

Personalities in female domesticated pigs: behavioural and physiological indications

The inconclusive evidence so far on the existence of distinct personality types in domesticated pigs, led us to perform the present experiment. A total of 128 gilts from 31 sows were systematically studied from birth to slaughter in two identical trials. Intra-test consistency in individual behavioural andror physiological reactions was studied in three different tests. We were not able to show consistencies in reactions of gilts over time to a backtest (at 2–4 days and 4 weeks of age) and to a novel environment test (at 10 and 24 weeks of age). Individual aggression, however, as measured in a group-feeding competition test in stable groups (at 10 and 24 weeks of age), proved to be highly consistent. Explanations for these discrepancies in intra-test consistencies are critically discussed. Inter-test consistencies were determined by relating the individual reactions of gilts to the backtest to various characteristics and responses to tests at a later age. The highest correlations were found when resistance in the first backtest was involved. No evidence was found for the existence of specific isolated categories of animals with respect to this resistance. For further analysis, extreme responding gilts in the first backtest (roughly the top and bottom 25% of the distribution) were classified as low resistant (LR; <3 escape attempts; n=31) or high resistant (HR; >4 escape attempts; n=45). By comparisons of mean responses of LR and HR gilts within groups, we have established a relationship between the backtest and several other variables. Behaviourally, the HR gilts showed more aggression in the group-feeding competition tests. Also, in the competition for the most productive teats at the anterior, a predominant position of HR piglets at this site was observed during the suckling period. The latter piglets also gained more weight during this period than LR ones. Compared to HR pigs, in the first novel environment test LR pigs hesitated longer to leave their home pens and to contact a human, but no difference in their locomotory behaviour was observed. Contrasts between LR and HR pigs in the second novel environment test were reduced or absent. Physiologically, when compared to HR gilts, LR ones had a higher reactivity of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenocortical (HPA) system. This was shown by higher cortisol responses to the first novel environment test, to routine weighing at 25 weeks of age, and to administration of a high dose of ACTH. It is discussed that these findings for LR and HR gilts, may provide support for the existence of behavioural and physiological responses in pigs, resembling those of proactive and reactive rodents.

Online One-Stop Shop for Disaster Response Services After the MH17 Airplane Crash:An Evaluation Study

Background: A one-stop shop for disaster response services provides a central location for information and advice in an accessible way. Yet little is known about its organization and outcomes. After the MH17 airplane crash, the one-stop shop concept was realized through a digital environment called the Information and Referral Center (IRC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the experiences of users and providers in regard to the IRC and to identify improvement points for future IRCs. Method: Data was collected among affected ones as well as involved organizations, using interviews, focus groups, surveys and online user information. Existing evaluation and quality models were combined to design the study and analyze the data. Results: First, affected ones and a variety of organizations involved were positive about the merits of the IRC. Affected ones indicated they perceived the IRC as a reliable source of information and appreciated the referral possibilities. Second, the feature of the IRC to serve as a community where affected ones could meet, share experiences and support each other was hardly used according to participants. Lastly, tracking evolving psychosocial needs and problems through the IRC was hampered due to difficulty in accessing relevant data. Conclusions: The IRC helped organizations to structure and align their services. Affected ones were positive about its reliability and accessibility. An IRC has to be embedded within the established care structures. Future research could indicate whether an IRC is useful in other event types and population contexts as well

Behavioural and physiological consequences of acute social defeat in growing gilts: effects of the social environment

Endocrine, behavioural and immunologic processes, together with body growth, were evaluated in gilts that were defeated at 10 weeks of age in resident-intruder tests. Immediately after defeat, gilts were either separated from or reunited with a familiar conspecific (litter-mate; always a barrow). Gilts were assigned to one of four treatments: (a) DI: defeat, followed by isolation (separation from original litter-mate; n=8); (b) I: no defeat, isolation (control group; n=9); (c) DP; defeat, followed by pair-housing (reunion with original litter-mate; n=8); and (d) P: no defeat, pair-housing (control group; n=8). The following general conclusions were derived: (1) social defeat caused pronounced short-term elevations in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) and sympathetic-adrenal medullary activities, and of prolactin levels. Moreover, as soon as 1 h after defeat, percentages of blood lymphocytes and neutrophilic granulocytes were, respectively, decreased and increased; (2) social defeat had some long-lasting influence on behaviour and physiology, but isolation predominantly determined responses in the longer term. Defeat, as well as isolation, resulted in increased cardiovascular activities compared to P controls, as observed in a novel object test (NOT: +7 days) and an aversion test (AVT: +14 days). Moreover, defeated as well as isolated gilts did not habituate to a repeated novel environment test (NET: -7, +2 and +7 days) in terms of frequencies of vocalising, whereas P controls did. Isolation, through the separation from any other pig, was responsible for the other observed long-term characteristics, which developed progressively. Isolated gilts showed high mobilities and high cortisol responses in the repeated NET (+7 days), not being habituated. This contrasted the reactions of pair-housed gilts, which were much reduced. In addition to their high cardiovascular activities in the NOT and the AVT, isolated gilts also displayed higher heart rates in the repeated NET and during human presence following the NOT, compared to pair-housed gilts. Finally, isolated gilts were more inhibited to approach a novel object (in the NOT) than pair-housed pigs; and (3) stress responses of defeated gilts were modulated by the subsequent social environment. Stimulation of the HPA-axis (plasma- and salivary cortisol) was prolonged in those defeated gilts which were isolated (observed in the first hour). Changes in leucocyte subsets were still observed after 3 days in DI, but were `normalised' within 1 day in DP gilts. Two days after defeat, habituation to the repeated NET in terms of mobility and salivary cortisol responses occurred in control and DP gilts, but not in DI gilts. We argue that these effects of the social environment shortly after defeat were related to a stress-reducing effect of a stable social relationship, i.e. social support.